1953, Poole 2002, Williams

et al. 2002, Condit et al. 2007, Mackey et al. 2008). The Bayesian method produces credible intervals for every parameter, and for every statistic derived from the parameters, based on posterior distributions described by the Markov chains, plus it simplifies the likelihood formulation by incorporating a latent parameter, Dj, for the age at which animal j dies (Clark et al. 2005; Appendix S2). Constraints on parameters served as prior probability distributions: the probability of any parameter combination was set to zero if it predicted survival rate outside the interval (0,1) at any age. We compared prior probabilities of survival rates to fitted posterior distributions to show that priors had negligible impact on results (Appendix S4). Single Markov chains of 10,000 steps were completed for all the models tested check details (Appendix S1). For the piecewise regression model with three segments, we carried out four additional chains of 22,000 steps,

each with different starting values for the parameters, in order to test for convergence. Parameter estimates, survival rates, and credible intervals based on the four runs were indistinguishable, and Gelman and Rubin’s (1992) scale reduction factor was <1.01, so the four chains were merged for a total of 80,000 estimates (discarding the first 2,000 of each Poziotinib mw as burn-in). There was autocorrelation in parameter chains, particularly for β1 (the first age division), so the final samples of 80,000 were thinned to 2,000 randomly drawn sets of parameters. The thinned chains describe the model’s estimate of each parameter’s posterior distribution. Every parameter combination was also used to calculate age-specific survival (Eq. (1)) and thence survivorship, yielding posterior distributions of all S(x) and L(x). The mean of each posterior distribution was taken as the best estimate for

every statistic, including survival and detection rates. The central 95 percentiles of the posterior distributions served as credible intervals for each model parameter, survival, and survivorship at every age. We state that differences are “statistically significant” when credible intervals 上海皓元 did not overlap a null hypothesis, for example, when intervals for slope parameters did not overlap zero. An additional source of uncertainty resulted from misread or failed brands. We documented misread brands by matching observed sex, brand position (left vs. right flank), and tag number to original records, and by examining repeated sightings. For example, the female with brand number 247 was seen many times from 1991 onward, while the brand 297 appeared in 1997 and 2000; the two numbers were never recorded in the same year. Since the real brand 297 was applied to a male, we assigned the 1997 and 2000 sightings to Brand-247.